CLIMATE TRENDS AND SCENARIOS

How is Western Australia’s climate changing? Climate Change 2009 - Faster and More Serious Risks The Federal Government has released a new report entitled Climate Change 2009 - Faster and More Serious Risks. The report reviews and synthesizes the science of climate change since the publication of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. It emphasises areas that have significant consequences for policy and management. The report focuses more strongly on issues of importance to Australia, and places them in a global context. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/science/publications/faster-change-more-risks.html  Climate Change in Australia 2007 - CSIRO Because of the range of climatic conditions that exist across the state, climate change will vary from region to region and sometimes across regions. The results of current research and modelling at the national and state level are summarised in a report entitled Climate Change in Australia published in 2007, with detailed information available interactively on the following website: www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/index.php This site, which is maintained by CSIRO, includes the results of climate change modelling of a range of climate change variables for each of three time horizons (2030, 2050, 2070) for each season (summer, autumn, winter, spring) as well as annual averages for each of three greenhouse emission scenarios (low, medium, high). The absence of information on sea level change is an obvious deficiency for those agencies involved in coastal management and development. However, projections for sea change level can be found in the report Climate Change Adaptation Action for Local Government published by the Australian Greenhouse Office in 2007: www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/publications/local-government.html In interpreting and applying the climate changes modelled, it needs to be borne in mind that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the inputs to the modelling and therefore the results. A conservative approach should be adopted in considering the forecasts and projections currently available. While a clearer picture may emerge with the publication of the next Inter-Governmental Report, scheduled for 2015, it would be unwise to assume that the current modelling necessarily encompasses the full range of climate-change impacts, or that the ‘most likely’ scenario will be realised. Further links to datasets, graphs, maps, animations and guidance about climate trends and scenarios for WA and Australia are available below. Bureau of Meteorology Climate Change Website www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ The Bureau of Meteorology Climate Change website provides links to news, information and observations on climate change in Australia including statements about major national or regional weather and climate events. Graphs, maps and datasets of Australian climate variability and change are available. Department of Climate Change, Climate Trends www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/trends/index.html The Department of Climate Change provides information about climate trends for rainfall, temperature, sea level and snow cover. OZCLIM Online Climate Projections Tool www.csiro.au/ozclim/home.do;jsessionid=... OzClim is an online PC-based software package provided by CSIRO that generates climate change projections for the whole of Australia or by region using different emissions scenarios and the outputs of various global climate models. A step-by-step guide is available or an advanced option for policy making. Climate change projections are presented as a colour map and can be exported from the website. Animations of Australia’s Projected Temperature and Rainfall with Climate Change www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/technical_report.php Animations of Australia’s projected temperature and rainfall changes for 2000-2100 can be viewed from this webpage. The animations were developed by CSIRO using the Mark 3.5 climate model and a mid-range emission scenario. Animation of Projected Global Surface Temperature www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/projections/ This site provides an animation of projected global surface temperature from 1870 to 2100 using the UK’s Hadley Centre global climate model. Projected Sea Level Rise www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_21st.html CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship provides projections of sea level change for the Australian region. OzCoasts Climate Trends and Projections www.ozcoasts.org.au/indicators/greenhouse_effect.jsp OzCoasts has compiled information from a range of sources about observed climatic trends and projections in Australia linked to global warming. Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/publications... This 2007 SMEC report is one of several tools the Australian Government is developing to assist local governments in identifying and implementing climate change adaptation actions. The report provides an excellent overview of climate change projections for Australia covering temperature, weather, rainfall, evaporation, sea level rise, weather extremes and fire. Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government was commissioned by the former Australian Greenhouse Office as part of the Australian Government’s National Climate Change Adaptation Program. Climate Change Scenarios for Initial Assessment of Risk in Accordance with Risk Management Guidance www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/publications/... Prepared by CSIRO, this report provides regional climate change scenarios for ten Australian regions including North Western Australia and South Western Australia. Garnaut Climate Change Review www.garnautreview.org.au/ The Garnaut Climate Change Review, published in September 2008, is an independent study by economist Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by Australia's Commonwealth, state and territory governments. The Garnaut Review examines climate change impacts on the Australian economy and the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation. Drawing on the expertise of CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, Chapter 5 of the Garnaut Review provides information about Australia’s projected future climate. IOCI Note Series on Observed Climate Change in the South-West of Western Australia www.ioci.org.au/index.php?menu_id=22 The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) has produced a range of bulletins and notes on the changing climate of south-west of Western Australia that can be downloaded from this webpage. The series, How Has Our Climate Changed? provides an excellent introduction to changes in temperature, rainfall, sea-level, river flow and groundwater recharge in the south west of Western Australia. Bulletin No.6 reports on the key IOCI research findings into the climate of south-west Western Australia. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Swan and Canning Rivers http://portal.environment.wa.gov.au/portal/page?... This report provides valuable information about the impacts of climate change on the Swan and Canning River system. The report includes: an overview of climate change observations and projections for the Swan and Canning River system; key impacts on ecology, social values, infrastructure, recreation and the economic base; and adaptation strategies for the Swan Canning River system. This report was written by the Technical Advisory Panel for the Swan River Trust in 2007. Climate Variability and Change in South-West Western Australia www.ioci.org.au/publications/reports.html This Indian Ocean Climate Initiative report, published in 2002, is based on five years of research into climatic variability in the south west of Western Australia. The report offers a list of key findings and valuable information on how climate has changed, causes of change and future climate projections. The report was written specifically for decision-makers in climate-affected industries and natural resource management. Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability - Summary for Policymakers www.ipcc.ch The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Report - Summary for Policymakers - gives a useful global overview of how climate change is affecting natural and human systems, current knowledge of future impacts, and climate change responses. Climate projections for Australia are included. The full Fourth Assessment Report is also available at this address. Climate Change - An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts www.climatechange.gov.au/science/guide/index.html Chapter 2 of this Guide provides information about observed changes in Australia’s climate, climate scenarios and projections based on the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC TAR) published in 2001 as well as more recent international and Australian research into climate change impacts and adaptation. This Guide was published in 2003, pre-Fourth Assessment Report. Variability and Trends in the Australian Wave Climate and Consequent Coastal Vulnerability www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/publications/wave.. This report describes Australia’s ocean wave climate and projected changes to surface ocean wave energy felt on Australia’s coasts as a result of climate change. The potential impacts of changing ocean waves in the coastal zone including greater coastal inundation from severe storm events and chronic coastal erosion is also discussed. This report was funded by the Department of Climate Change and CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship. Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/publications/marinelife.html Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on marine life and ecosystems. This report, published in 2006 by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, draws together current knowledge of climate change impacts on Australian marine life. The report includes projections for Australian marine climate and potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human societies. Recommendations are made to address information gaps and build resilience to climate change. Back to top

Research Overview Impacts Approaches to Adaptation Trends and Scenarios